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Was Desmond telling the truth about Charlie's death leading to Claire's rescue?

Theory 1: Yes, Charlie's sacrifice was supposed to end up with Claire stepping onto a helicopter and being rescued

• The Kahana did have a helicopter that she surely would have escaped on as Desmond described. She and Kate would have met in the forest where she, Jack and Sawyer met, and surely Claire, accompanied by Kate or Sawyer, would been a priority to get on to the helicopter or the boat.
• This would have happened if Christian hadn't intervened. If Jacob can see the future (as the Others seem to rely on him to do), then Christian's intervention counteracted Desmond's and made sure that Aaron was taken off the island, Claire stayed, and maybe by extension that Kate would also be put in charge of Aaron for the day, and then for at least the next several years. This intervention has big consequences.

• Time is not linear and every decision make creates a new dimension, all dimensions existing at once. So every time Des uses his new insight to change what is to happen, he causes some sort of blending of the dimensions. Possibly the Island encourages Locke to explode the hatch so that Des gains this power and leads them to the moment of shutting down The Looking Glass. When Des has his experience returning to his past the only castaway he encounters is Charlie, who is on the street with his guitar singing the chorus of 'Wonderwall' by Oasis: "And maybe you're gonna be the one that saves me." This may reference how Des is being pushed to save Charlie so he'll dive to the Looking Glass. It also must reference when Charlie is called a hero by the woman for stopping the mugging, an event that goes on his Greatest Hits list left for Claire after he decides to die for her.

• Desmond's interference in Charlie's inevitable death caused severe ripples in time changing things that were "meant to be". This is evidenced by Jack telling Kate that "they weren't supposed to leave the island", and by John Locke telling Jack that he "wasn't supposed to do this" after stabbing Naomi. The island began trying to kill Charlie after Jack brought him back to life due to Ethan hanging him.

Theory 2: No, Desmond had to get Charlie to complete the mission for other reasons and used the story of Claire to motivate him

• At least once before (to retrieve Naomi and be back with Penny) Desmond risked Charlie's life. In the end, he was reunited with Penny and Charlie dies, and Claire wasn't rescued like he said.

• Maybe this is why Charlie wanted to make sure Desmond knew that it wasn't Penny's boat. He chose to give the message, just in case he was trying to pull a fast one on him. Though it seems as though he could have used the time to simply open the door and try to escape. Perhaps he was resigned to the idea that somehow his death was required for Claire's escape outcome to happen.

• If Charlie hadn't gone, Naomi and the Losties would not be able to communicate with the ship. But it's hard to imagine that would have stopped the Kahana crew & Keamy.

• Charlie didn't necessarily have to die (meaning he could have survived and Claire still might be rescued), but his death was the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Desmond's visions are choppy flashes of the future, often in pieces and out of any context that he understands, and his assumption of a chain of events which needs to happen a certain way is incorrect. This means that the parachutist would have ended up being Naomi regardless of whether Desmond saved Charlie's life that day (it seems strange that Charlie getting an arrow through his neck on the same day a woman crashed on the island would change the identity of that woman). However, because Charlie was working under this assumption and believed that he had to die in order to save Claire, he chose not to swim out of the room.

Theory 3: Yes, Charlie's sacrifice will (eventually) end up with Claire stepping onto a helicopter being rescued

• It ain't over yet.
• Notice he said "Claire and her baby getting on a helicopter" - nothing specifically about Aaron. Since Aaron is with Kate now and at least some of the O6 are anxious to return, Claire may get on a helicopter and off the island someday after all, perhaps with another baby.

Theory 4: Yes, but the premonition did not come true because all of the events did not take place

• Desmond once said that in order for a premonition to come true, every flash he has must happen. The premonition he had was of Claire and Aaron getting on a helicopter. The premonition changed, due to a flash not happening. The event that did not happen was Charlie's death. Because Charlie is still alive, the rest of the premonition did not come true.